{"id":3667453,"date":"2026-04-21T04:01:39","date_gmt":"2026-04-21T08:01:39","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/?post_type=study_posts&p=3667453"},"modified":"2026-04-27T22:43:36","modified_gmt":"2026-04-28T02:43:36","slug":"forecasting-under-pressure-new-data-shows-uncertainty-is-still-running-high","status":"publish","type":"study_posts","link":"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/study_posts\/forecasting-under-pressure-new-data-shows-uncertainty-is-still-running-high\/","title":{"rendered":"Forecasting Under Pressure: New Data Shows Uncertainty Is Still Running High"},"content":{"rendered":"

Business forecasting is becoming more difficult as sources of risk continue to shift across markets. Last year, tariffs disrupted plans for prices, supply chains and demand. In March 2026, conflict and broader geopolitical stress introduced a new shock. The latest PYMNTS Intelligence<\/strong><\/b> data suggests a familiar outcome: business uncertainty remains high, especially for goods firms, and finance leaders are still trying to plan in markets that can change quickly.<\/p>\n

While the nature of the shock has shifted, forecasting pressure remains elevated. The uncertainty level in March 2026 is close to the high point seen in earlier PYMNTS Intelligence research, with goods firms once again taking the hardest hit.<\/p>\n

Why Business Forecasting Under Uncertainty Is So Challenging<\/h2>\n

Rising Uncertainty and Pressure on Goods Firms<\/h3>\n

The March 2026 sample of heads of payments shows that 27% of respondents say their firms face a high level of uncertainty, close to levels seen during earlier tariff-related disruptions. Goods firms stand out even more, with 47% reporting high uncertainty. The pattern suggests that when new shocks emerge, goods businesses are still the first to feel the impact, making business forecasting more difficult in volatile conditions.<\/p>\n