{"id":3696038,"date":"2026-04-30T14:00:48","date_gmt":"2026-04-30T18:00:48","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/?p=3696038"},"modified":"2026-04-30T14:01:56","modified_gmt":"2026-04-30T18:01:56","slug":"oil-prices-and-supply-chain-stress-sour-economic-outlook","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/economy\/2026\/oil-prices-and-supply-chain-stress-sour-economic-outlook\/","title":{"rendered":"Oil Prices and Supply Chain Stress Sour Economic Outlook"},"content":{"rendered":"<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/north-america\/\">The Conference Board<\/a>\u2019s Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.6% in March amid higher oil prices and stressed supply chains.<\/p><div\r\n\tid=\"article-paywall-overlay\"\r\n\tclass=\"d-none\"\r\n>\r\n\t<div id=\"article-paywall-content\" class=\"my-4\">\r\n\t\t\n<div class=\"wpcf7 no-js\" id=\"wpcf7-f2699550-o1\" lang=\"en-US\" dir=\"ltr\" data-wpcf7-id=\"2699550\">\n<div 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data-prefix=\"_wpcf7_ak_\"><label>&#916;<textarea name=\"_wpcf7_ak_hp_textarea\" cols=\"45\" rows=\"8\" maxlength=\"100\"><\/textarea><\/label><input type=\"hidden\" id=\"ak_js_1\" name=\"_wpcf7_ak_js\" value=\"8\"\/><script>document.getElementById( \"ak_js_1\" ).setAttribute( \"value\", ( new Date() ).getTime() );<\/script><\/p><div class=\"wpcf7-response-output\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/div>\n<\/form>\n<\/div>\n\r\n\t<\/div>\r\n<\/div>\r\n<div id=\"article-paywall-hidden-content\">\r\n\t\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The LEI is based on 10 components and aims to indicate where the economy is heading in the near term, The Conference Board said in a Thursday (April 30) <a href=\"https:\/\/www.conference-board.org\/topics\/us-leading-indicators\/\">press release<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The index\u2019s decline in March was driven by weakening of three of those components: building permits, consumer expectations and stock prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe LEI continues to signal a slowdown in the economy over the coming months, as higher oil prices and supply chain tensions will likely place additional upward pressure on inflation and further reduce consumers\u2019 purchasing power,\u201d <a href=\"https:\/\/www.linkedin.com\/in\/justyna-zabinska-lamonica\">Justyna Zabinska-La Monica<\/a>, senior manager, business cycle indicators at The Conference Board, said in the release.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The index also signals that hiring may slow, unemployment may edge higher, consumer spending is likely to weaken, and business investment and defense-related activity are likely to strengthen, Zabinska-La Monica said.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Census Bureau reported Wednesday (April 29) that new orders for nondefense capital goods, excluding aircraft \u2014 a metric dubbed \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/artificial-intelligence-2\/2026\/ai-spending-drives-business-equipment-investment-to-6-year-high\/\">core capital goods<\/a>\u201d by economists \u2014 rose 3.3% in March, accelerating from the increase of 1.6% in February.<\/p><div id=\"pymnt-3281028302\" class=\"pymnt-content pymnt-entity-placement\" style=\"margin-top: 50px;\"><p style=\"text-align:center\">Advertisement: Scroll to Continue<\/p><script async type=\"text\/javascript\" id=\"dianomi_context_script\" src=\"https:\/\/www.dianomi.com\/js\/contextfeed.js\"><\/script> \r\n<div class=\"dianomi_context\" data-dianomi-context-id=\"4329\"><\/div><\/div>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">Both Bloomberg and Reuters reported that this increase was driven by the continued investment businesses are making in artificial intelligence (AI) and data centers.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The University of Michigan\u2019s Surveys of Consumers found that in April, consumers\u2019 expectations for <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/consumer-insights\/2026\/gas-prices-drive-consumer-sentiment-index-to-all-time-low\/\">business conditions<\/a> on both short and long time horizons declined to levels that were about as low as those seen a year earlier when tariffs were imposed.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The Surveys of Consumers attributed the decline in this and other measures to the impact the Iran conflict is having on gasoline and potentially other prices.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">The <a href=\"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/pymnts-intelligence\/\">PYMNTS Intelligence<\/a> report \u201c<a href=\"https:\/\/www.pymnts.com\/study_posts\/forecasting-under-pressure-new-data-shows-uncertainty-is-still-running-high\/\">Forecasting Under Pressure: New Data Shows Uncertainty Is Still Running High<\/a>\u201d found business uncertainty remains high and that conflict and broader geopolitical stress introduced a new shock in March.<\/p>\n<p style=\"font-weight: 400;\">\u201cThe takeaway is clear: business forecasting is increasingly shaped by recurring uncertainty rather than stable cycles,\u201d the report said. \u201cMarch 2026 brought a different shock than early 2025, but the effect looks much the same: forecasting gets harder, goods firms feel the hit first and firms facing the most pressure pay a steep price.\u201d<\/p>\n\r\n<\/div>\r\n<script>\r\n\twindow.pymntsAllowedArticleCount = 2;\r\n\twindow.pymntsPostID = 3696038;\r\n<\/script>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The Conference Board\u2019s Leading Economic Index (LEI) declined by 0.6% in March amid higher oil prices and stressed supply chains. 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